Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints38
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints43
- Isaiah CollierAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–127
- Q47.3Ace Bailey defensive rebound122–127
- Q410.2Jaden McDaniels misses 24-foot running jump shot122–127
- Q415.2Naz Reid defensive rebound122–127
- Q415.6Julius Randle lane violation122–127
- Q415.6Kyle Filipowski misses free throw 2 of 2122–127
- Q415.6Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 1 of 2122–127
- Q415.6Naz Reid personal take foul122–126
- Q416.1Jazz Full timeout122–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:05Keyonte George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)MIN 106 – 110 UTAH · UTAH 42% → 60% +17UTAH 42% → 60%+17 pts
- Q43:19Jaden McDaniels makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 111 – 114 UTAH · MIN 23% → 37% +14MIN 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q42:44Isaiah Collier makes driving layupMIN 111 – 116 UTAH · UTAH 66% → 81% +14UTAH 66% → 81%+14 pts
- Q41:21Anthony Edwards makes 3-foot running dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 118 – 121 UTAH · MIN 8% → 22% +14MIN 8% → 22%+14 pts
- Q459.2Keyonte George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)MIN 119 – 124 UTAH · UTAH 72% → 95% +23UTAH 72% → 95%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -12.5
- ML MIN -650 / UTAH +470
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -12
- MIN 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 87.1%, market 83.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -494
- UTAH +494 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 125.5 – 113.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1362 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | −61 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Kevin Love −11, Georges Niang −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +332 Elo | MIN 87.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 83.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 84.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 83.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.0 | Points scored | 119.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 127.530th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.3 | Margin | −8.428th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 121.030th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.4 | Pace | 103.93rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 9–1223rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15372nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301613 | Elo rating | 136227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−61 Elo- Kevin Love rest−11 Elo
- Georges Niang left foot−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–24 | 24–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–19 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–1 UTAH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Nov 10MIN 120 @ UTAH 113Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Nov 7UTAH 97 @ MIN 137Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Apr 13UTAH 105 @ MIN 116Picked MIN 95%Hit
- Mar 16UTAH 102 @ MIN 128Picked MIN 85%Hit
- Feb 28MIN 116 @ UTAH 117Picked MIN 62%Miss
- Jan 30MIN 138 @ UTAH 113Picked MIN 68%Hit
- Mar 18MIN 114 @ UTAH 104Picked MIN 55%Hit
- Mar 16MIN 119 @ UTAH 100Picked MIN 63%Hit