Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints29
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists8
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds12
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints23
- Naji MarshallAssists6
- Moussa CisseRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–138
- Q423.5Miles Kelly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)120–138
- Q438.7Moussa Cisse defensive rebound120–135
- Q441.3Keyonte George misses 11-foot two point shot120–135
- Q457.0Moussa Cisse makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Miles Kelly assists)120–135
- Q41:01Miles Kelly defensive rebound120–133
- Q41:04Kyle Filipowski misses 25-foot three point jumper120–133
- Q41:18Cody Williams defensive rebound120–133
- Q41:23Jaden Hardy misses free throw 2 of 2120–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:50Max Christie makes 25-foot running jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)UTAH 4 – 11 DAL · DAL 66% → 72% +6DAL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q16:37Isaiah Collier makes 24-foot three point jumperUTAH 10 – 15 DAL · UTAH 26% → 32% +6UTAH 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q16:15Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)UTAH 10 – 18 DAL · DAL 68% → 74% +6DAL 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q25:19Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)UTAH 44 – 55 DAL · DAL 76% → 82% +6DAL 76% → 82%+6 pts
- Q21:58Ace Bailey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 53 – 62 DAL · UTAH 16% → 21% +6UTAH 16% → 21%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML UTAH +130 / DAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -140
- UTAH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.5 – 122.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −51 | −74 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −23 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +68 Elo | DAL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 113.624th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.4 | Points allowed | 117.019th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.0 | Margin | −3.423rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 108.527th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.6 | Defense rating | 111.812th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.0 | Pace | 103.47th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–15 | Road vs home | 12–1119th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 149220th of 30 |
| 28th of 301377 | Elo rating | 143124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−74 Elo- Daniel Gafford right ankle sprain−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–18 | 18–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–15 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 4–6 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 15UTAH 122 @ DAL 144Picked DAL 55%Hit
- Jan 8DAL 114 @ UTAH 116Picked DAL 63%Miss
- Dec 15DAL 133 @ UTAH 140Picked DAL 51%Miss
- Nov 30DAL 106 @ UTAH 94Picked DAL 67%Hit
- Nov 14DAL 113 @ UTAH 115Picked DAL 72%Miss
- Oct 28UTAH 102 @ DAL 110Picked DAL 83%Hit
- Mar 25DAL 115 @ UTAH 105Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Mar 21UTAH 97 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 78%Hit