Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints27
- Isaiah CollierAssists12
- Cody WilliamsRebounds6
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints26
- Ryan NembhardAssists10
- Moussa CisseRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–144
- Q416.6Brice Sensabaugh makes layup (Kyle Anderson assists)122–144
- Q435.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes two point shot120–144
- Q435.5Jeremiah Robinson-Earl offensive rebound120–142
- Q437.8Ryan Nembhard misses running pullup jump shot120–142
- Q442.4Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound120–142
- Q444.9Moussa Cisse blocks Isaiah Collier 's 2-foot two point shot120–142
- Q452.0Ryan Nembhard makes 19-foot step back jumpshot120–142
- Q41:12Kyle Anderson makes 23-foot jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)120–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:18Cody Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)UTAH 19 – 21 DAL · UTAH 34% → 41% +6UTAH 34% → 41%+6 pts
- Q13:52Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)UTAH 21 – 24 DAL · DAL 55% → 61% +7DAL 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q11:18Klay Thompson makes 23-foot running jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)UTAH 24 – 31 DAL · DAL 64% → 70% +6DAL 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q210:37Miles Kelly makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)UTAH 28 – 40 DAL · DAL 75% → 80% +6DAL 75% → 80%+6 pts
- Q25:46Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)UTAH 39 – 54 DAL · DAL 81% → 86% +5DAL 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -2.5
- ML UTAH +114 / DAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1.5
- DAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 55.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -123
- UTAH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.0 – 120.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DAL and UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −47 | −68 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +40 Elo | DAL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 112.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.0 | Points allowed | 116.919th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.7 | Margin | −4.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 108.028th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.4 | Defense rating | 111.812th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Pace | 103.39th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–14 | Road vs home | 11–1118th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 149516th of 30 |
| 27th of 301392 | Elo rating | 141625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–17 | 17–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–15 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 4–5 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Jan 8DAL 114 @ UTAH 116Picked DAL 63%Miss
- Dec 15DAL 133 @ UTAH 140Picked DAL 51%Miss
- Nov 30DAL 106 @ UTAH 94Picked DAL 67%Hit
- Nov 14DAL 113 @ UTAH 115Picked DAL 72%Miss
- Oct 28UTAH 102 @ DAL 110Picked DAL 83%Hit
- Mar 25DAL 115 @ UTAH 105Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Mar 21UTAH 97 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 78%Hit
- Jan 1DAL 90 @ UTAH 127Picked DAL 50%Miss