Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints30
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists7
- Kevin LoveRebounds11
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints33
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–123
- Q41.9shot clock turnover110–123
- Q423.2Dylan Harper defensive rebound110–123
- Q427.0Carter Bryant blocks Cody Williams 's 3-foot layup110–123
- Q442.6Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound110–123
- Q444.9Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 2 of 2110–123
- Q444.9Spurs offensive team rebound110–123
- Q444.9Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 1 of 2110–123
- Q444.9Taylor Hendricks personal foul110–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:15Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)UTAH 38 – 38 SA · UTAH 13% → 17% +4UTAH 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q28:33Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 41 – 38 SA · UTAH 17% → 23% +5UTAH 17% → 23%+5 pts
- Q27:26Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)UTAH 41 – 43 SA · SA 80% → 85% +5SA 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q38:31Jusuf Nurkic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)UTAH 67 – 70 SA · UTAH 11% → 16% +5UTAH 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q37:36Victor Wembanyama makes 28-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)UTAH 67 – 75 SA · SA 87% → 92% +4SA 87% → 92%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -16.5
- ML UTAH +650 / SA -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -11.5
- SA 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SA: Elo 86.6%, market 87.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -682
- UTAH +682 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.5 – 127.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −55 | +40 | UTAH: Missing Georges Niang −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +325 Elo | SA 86.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 86.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 86.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 87.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 117.78th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.6 | Points allowed | 113.07th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.3 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 115.38th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.9 | Defense rating | 110.74th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.0 | Pace | 101.815th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–16 | Road vs home | 15–55th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 15088th of 30 |
| 27th of 301365 | Elo rating | 155910th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−55 Elo- Georges Niang left foot stress fracture−3 Elo
Spurs
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–19 | 24–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–15 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 4–4 SA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Dec 27UTAH 127 @ SA 114Picked SA 85%Miss
- Nov 26SA 128 @ UTAH 115Picked SA 53%Hit
- Nov 21UTAH 118 @ SA 126Picked SA 57%Hit
- Nov 9UTAH 111 @ SA 110Picked SA 69%Miss
- Oct 31SA 106 @ UTAH 88Picked SA 56%Hit
- Mar 27SA 118 @ UTAH 111Picked UTAH 59%Miss
- Feb 25SA 109 @ UTAH 128Picked UTAH 72%Hit
- Dec 26UTAH 130 @ SA 118Picked UTAH 61%Hit