San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Julian ChampagniePoints27
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Rockets- Reed SheppardPoints21
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–111
- Q41.9Victor Wembanyama makes tip in dunk106–111
- Q41.9Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound104–111
- Q43.7Stephon Castle misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot104–111
- Q47.8Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2104–111
- Q47.8Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2104–110
- Q47.8Julian Champagnie personal take foul104–109
- Q47.8Amen Thompson defensive rebound104–109
- Q49.3Victor Wembanyama misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot104–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:31Reed Sheppard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)SA 98 – 96 HOU · HOU 25% → 42% +17HOU 25% → 42%+17 pts
- Q44:45Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three pointerSA 98 – 99 HOU · HOU 40% → 60% +20HOU 40% → 60%+20 pts
- Q43:28Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)SA 102 – 104 HOU · HOU 45% → 68% +23HOU 45% → 68%+23 pts
- Q43:00De'Aaron Fox makes 11-foot fade away jump shotSA 104 – 104 HOU · SA 31% → 47% +16SA 31% → 47%+16 pts
- Q41:47Jabari Smith Jr. makes 17-foot fade away jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)SA 104 – 106 HOU · HOU 52% → 72% +20HOU 52% → 72%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML SA +145 / HOU -175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -156
- SA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 108.0 – 112.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | +4 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +40 Elo | HOU 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 117.112th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 110.74th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +6.44th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 117.54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 111.07th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 14–32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 10th of 301561 | Elo rating | 15668th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–20 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–15 | 17–20 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–6 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Nov 7HOU 110 @ SA 121Picked HOU 61%Miss
- Feb 26SA 106 @ HOU 118Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Nov 6SA 100 @ HOU 127Picked HOU 70%Hit
- Oct 28HOU 106 @ SA 101Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Oct 26HOU 106 @ SA 109Picked HOU 53%Miss
- Mar 12HOU 103 @ SA 101Picked SA 52%Miss
- Mar 5SA 101 @ HOU 114Picked HOU 59%Hit
- Dec 11SA 82 @ HOU 93Picked HOU 72%Hit