New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints21
- Derik QueenAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds6
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points32
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Steven AdamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–119
- Q42.6Josh Okogie offensive rebound110–119
- Q47.6Josh Okogie misses free throw 2 of 2110–119
- Q47.6JD Davison enters the game for Kevin Durant110–119
- Q47.6Josh Okogie makes free throw 1 of 2110–119
- Q47.6Micah Peavy personal foul110–118
- Q49.3Jordan Poole makes 5-foot two point shot110–118
- Q415.2Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2108–118
- Q415.2Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Alperen Sengun108–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:43Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three pointer (Kevin Durant assists)NO 36 – 37 HOU · HOU 78% → 83% +5HOU 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q23:52Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three pointerNO 48 – 52 HOU · HOU 81% → 86% +5HOU 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q354.6Micah Peavy makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)NO 80 – 85 HOU · NO 9% → 15% +6NO 9% → 15%+6 pts
- Q410:46Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot running jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)NO 84 – 89 HOU · NO 8% → 15% +6NO 8% → 15%+6 pts
- Q410:02Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)NO 86 – 94 HOU · HOU 86% → 92% +6HOU 86% → 92%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -13.5
- ML NO +575 / HOU -850
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9
- HOU 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 80.6%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -604
- NO +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 109.5 – 123.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | 0 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +247 Elo | HOU 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 84.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 84.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.0 | Points scored | 117.112th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 110.74th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +6.44th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 117.45th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 111.07th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.5 | Pace | 98.028th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–16 | Road vs home | 13–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 30 |
| 29th of 301332 | Elo rating | 15638th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–22 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 17–19 |
| Underdog | 18–22 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–6 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 18HOU 128 @ NO 133Picked HOU 77%Miss
- Mar 8NO 117 @ HOU 146Picked HOU 71%Hit
- Mar 6HOU 109 @ NO 97Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Dec 26HOU 128 @ NO 111Picked HOU 71%Hit
- Dec 19NO 113 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 77%Hit
- Feb 22HOU 105 @ NO 127Picked NO 69%Hit
- Jan 31NO 110 @ HOU 99Picked HOU 51%Miss
- Dec 23HOU 106 @ NO 104Picked NO 71%Miss