New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints27
- Zion WilliamsonAssists7
- Derik QueenRebounds12
Pacers- Jay HuffPoints29
- Andrew NembhardAssists10
- Jay HuffRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–127
- Q412.9Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 2119–127
- Q412.9Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2118–127
- Q412.9Tony Bradley shooting foul117–127
- Q417.1Derik Queen defensive rebound117–127
- Q419.5Johnny Furphy misses 22-foot three point jumper117–127
- Q438.3Saddiq Bey makes two point shot117–127
- Q445.1Pascal Siakam makes driving layup (Tony Bradley assists)115–127
- Q447.6Tony Bradley offensive rebound115–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:12Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)NO 63 – 66 IND · NO 25% → 32% +7NO 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q34:38Trey Murphy III makes 29-foot three pointerNO 85 – 87 IND · NO 26% → 35% +9NO 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q33:46Jarace Walker makes 27-foot three pointer (T.J. McConnell assists)NO 87 – 92 IND · IND 65% → 74% +10IND 65% → 74%+10 pts
- Q31:52Karlo Matkovic makes 24-foot three point jumperNO 91 – 96 IND · NO 17% → 25% +8NO 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q46:55Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three pointerNO 105 – 112 IND · NO 7% → 14% +7NO 7% → 14%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML NO +160 / IND -192
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- IND 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- IND: Elo 60.2%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -171
- NO +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.5 – 123.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1339 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −39 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +72 Elo | IND 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 110.628th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 118.323rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.3 | Margin | −7.727th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 107.430th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 114.819th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.6 | Pace | 102.412th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–15 | Road vs home | 7–1628th of 30 |
| 5th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 15088th of 30 |
| 29th of 301339 | Elo rating | 141426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–21 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 18–21 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20 | 15–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–3 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.