Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points20
- Noah ClowneyAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds9
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints34
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists5
- Yves MissiRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–116
- Q41.0Nets offensive team rebound113–116
- Q41.0Michael Porter Jr. misses 34-foot three point jumper113–116
- Q44.6Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2113–116
- Q44.6Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Terance Mann113–115
- Q44.6Yves Missi enters the game for Jordan Poole113–115
- Q44.6Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Jeremiah Fears113–115
- Q44.6Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2113–115
- Q44.6Nic Claxton personal foul113–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:50Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 101 – 103 NO · NO 44% → 63% +19NO 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q41:47Trey Murphy III makes two point shotBKN 107 – 107 NO · NO 30% → 50% +21NO 30% → 50%+21 pts
- Q41:28Egor Demin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)BKN 110 – 107 NO · BKN 50% → 81% +31BKN 50% → 81%+31 pts
- Q41:04Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)BKN 110 – 110 NO · NO 15% → 50% +35NO 15% → 50%+35 pts
- Q421.1Saddiq Bey makes driving dunkBKN 110 – 112 NO · NO 50% → 89% +39NO 50% → 89%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -1.5
- ML BKN -108 / NO -112
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -2.5
- NO 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- NO: Elo 39.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NO -102
- BKN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 115.5 – 117.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1331 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | +11 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +76 Elo | BKN 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 114.921st of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 122.428th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.1 | Margin | −7.526th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 110.824th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 118.027th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.8 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–11 | Road vs home | 6–1829th of 30 |
| 14th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15204th of 30 |
| 28th of 301379 | Elo rating | 133129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–19 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 17–19 | 18–21 |
| Overs–unders | 15–22 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–2 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.