Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints20
- Daniss JenkinsAssists4
- Jalen DurenRebounds15
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints20
- Derik QueenAssists8
- Micah PeavyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–104
- Q411.1Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Micah Peavy assists)112–104
- Q418.7Daniss Jenkins bad pass
turnover (Micah Peavy steals)112–101
- Q445.7Tobias Harris defensive rebound112–101
- Q448.8Jordan Poole misses 28-foot running jump shot112–101
- Q454.3Trey Murphy III defensive rebound112–101
- Q456.2Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 2 of 2112–101
- Q456.2Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson112–101
- Q456.2Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2112–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:17Isaiah Stewart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 29 – 17 NO · DET 81% → 88% +7DET 81% → 88%+7 pts
- Q12:04Micah Peavy makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)DET 29 – 25 NO · NO 16% → 24% +8NO 16% → 24%+8 pts
- Q411:05Ronald Holland II makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 92 – 84 NO · DET 79% → 87% +8DET 79% → 87%+8 pts
- Q45:41Micah Peavy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)DET 101 – 96 NO · NO 8% → 17% +9NO 8% → 17%+9 pts
- Q44:25Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot dunk (Duncan Robinson assists)DET 103 – 96 NO · DET 85% → 91% +7DET 85% → 91%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML DET -270 / NO +220
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -8
- DET 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- DET: Elo 78.2%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -234
- NO +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 120.5 – 113.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1616 | 1329 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | +17 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +222 Elo | DET 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 114.921st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 122.228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.3 | Margin | −7.326th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 111.224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 118.328th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.5 | Pace | 102.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–6 | Road vs home | 7–1829th of 30 |
| 26th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15205th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301616 | Elo rating | 132929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–19 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.