Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints32
- Derrick WhiteAssists5
- Jaylen BrownRebounds11
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists14
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–104
- Q40.0Celtics offensive team rebound103–104
- Q40.0Jaylen Brown misses 14-foot fade away jump shot103–104
- Q44.4Anfernee Simons enters the game for Neemias Queta103–104
- Q44.4Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson103–104
- Q44.4Celtics Full timeout103–104
- Q44.4Celtics defensive team rebound103–104
- Q48.5Cade Cunningham misses 10-foot fade away jump shot103–104
- Q422.5Duncan Robinson offensive rebound103–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:20Jaylen Brown makes driving layupBOS 97 – 96 DET · BOS 41% → 56% +16BOS 41% → 56%+16 pts
- Q42:58Tobias Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BOS 97 – 99 DET · DET 43% → 67% +24DET 43% → 67%+24 pts
- Q42:21Cade Cunningham makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotBOS 99 – 101 DET · DET 51% → 69% +18DET 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q41:37Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BOS 99 – 104 DET · DET 72% → 93% +20DET 72% → 93%+20 pts
- Q445.1Jaylen Brown makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Derrick White assists)BOS 103 – 104 DET · BOS 10% → 33% +23BOS 10% → 33%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML BOS +114 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- DET: Elo 54.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 110.5 – 113.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1649 | 1613 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +31 | BOS: Usual rotation · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +29 Elo | DET 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 117.79th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 110.33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.9 | Margin | +7.42nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.4 | Offense rating | 114.112th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 106.92nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 102.610th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 16–43rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 147928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301649 | Elo rating | 16134th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–18 | 22–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–3 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Dec 15DET 112 @ BOS 105Picked BOS 52%Miss
- Nov 26DET 114 @ BOS 117Picked DET 53%Miss
- Oct 26BOS 113 @ DET 119Picked DET 55%Hit
- Feb 26BOS 97 @ DET 117Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Dec 12DET 99 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 84%Hit
- Dec 4DET 120 @ BOS 130Picked BOS 86%Hit
- Oct 26BOS 124 @ DET 118Picked BOS 86%Hit
- Mar 22BOS 129 @ DET 102Picked BOS 76%Hit