Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints41
- Derrick WhiteAssists12
- Hugo GonzalezRebounds8
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints21
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists6
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–106
- Q40.5shot clock turnover132–106
- Q423.5shot clock turnover132–106
- Q448.5Caleb Houstan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mouhamed Gueye assists)132–106
- Q41:08Baylor Scheierman out of bounds bad pass turnover132–103
- Q41:22Keaton Wallace makes free throw 1 of 1132–103
- Q41:22Hugo Gonzalez shooting foul132–102
- Q41:22Keaton Wallace makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (RayJ Dennis assists)132–102
- Q41:33Xavier Tillman lost ball turnover (Keaton Wallace steals)132–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:29Baylor Scheierman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 3 – 2 ATL · BOS 55% → 61% +6BOS 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q13:46Jaylen Brown makes 24-foot three pointerBOS 19 – 13 ATL · BOS 65% → 71% +6BOS 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q211:24Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three pointerBOS 33 – 25 ATL · BOS 69% → 75% +6BOS 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q210:13Sam Hauser makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Derrick White assists)BOS 36 – 29 ATL · BOS 67% → 74% +6BOS 67% → 74%+6 pts
- Q29:41Baylor Scheierman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 39 – 31 ATL · BOS 69% → 76% +6BOS 69% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -3.5
- ML BOS -162 / ATL +136
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 73.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- ATL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.0 – 113.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1640 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −23 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | ATL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +180 Elo | BOS 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 117.98th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 118.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | −1.019th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 113.017th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 113.917th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 7–1125th of 30 |
| 28th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301640 | Elo rating | 146320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–18 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–13 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–23 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–4 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.