Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Jarace WalkerPoints13
- Micah PotterAssists5
- Micah PotterRebounds9
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints16
- Cade CunninghamAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game78–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter78–121
- Q40.8Javonte Green defensive rebound78–121
- Q40.8Taelon Peter misses 23-foot three point jumper78–121
- Q413.6Daniss Jenkins bad pass
turnover (Taelon Peter steals)78–121
- Q435.7Paul Reed defensive rebound78–121
- Q438.7Taelon Peter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot78–121
- Q445.9Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot78–121
- Q41:05Javonte Green defensive rebound78–118
- Q41:11Ethan Thompson misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot78–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Duren assists)IND 0 – 3 DET · DET 87% → 90% +3DET 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q111:23Cade Cunningham makes running layupIND 0 – 5 DET · DET 90% → 91% +2DET 90% → 91%+2 pts
- Q110:08Jalen Duren makes 2-foot running dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)IND 0 – 7 DET · DET 91% → 93% +2DET 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q19:57Quenton Jackson makes driving layupIND 2 – 9 DET · IND 6% → 7% +1IND 6% → 7%+1 pts
- Q19:36Cade Cunningham makes 17-foot pullup jump shotIND 2 – 11 DET · DET 93% → 94% +1DET 93% → 94%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DET -15.5
- ML IND +625 / DET -950
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -14
- DET 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- DET: Elo 90.6%, market 86.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -656
- IND +656 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 105.0 – 120.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −97 | +33 | IND: Missing Pascal Siakam −52, Aaron Nesmith −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +393 Elo | DET 90.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 87.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 87.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 86.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 117.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 111.14th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.4 | Margin | +6.52nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 114.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.3 | Pace | 102.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–16 | Road vs home | 15–44th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148030th of 30 |
| 26th of 301421 | Elo rating | 16095th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−97 Elo- Pascal Siakam rest−52 Elo
- Aaron Nesmith rest−7 Elo
Pistons
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–20 | 21–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–26 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 7–3 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Nov 24DET 122 @ IND 117Picked DET 77%Hit
- Nov 17IND 112 @ DET 127Picked DET 74%Hit
- Jan 29DET 119 @ IND 133Picked IND 65%Hit
- Jan 16IND 111 @ DET 100Picked IND 53%Hit
- Nov 29DET 130 @ IND 106Picked IND 63%Miss
- Oct 23IND 115 @ DET 109Picked IND 66%Hit
- Mar 20IND 122 @ DET 103Picked IND 61%Hit
- Feb 22DET 115 @ IND 129Picked IND 75%Hit