Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints33
- Royce O'NealeAssists7
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds12
Pistons- Duncan RobinsonPoints19
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–108
- Q40.1Suns offensive team rebound105–108
- Q40.7Grayson Allen misses 26-foot three point shot105–108
- Q42.0Grayson Allen enters the game for Ryan Dunn105–108
- Q42.0Duncan Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2105–108
- Q42.0Ausar Thompson enters the game for Jaden Ivey105–107
- Q42.0Ronald Holland II enters the game for Tobias Harris105–107
- Q42.0Pistons offensive team rebound105–107
- Q42.0Duncan Robinson misses free throw 1 of 2105–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q340.7Collin Gillespie makes 33-foot three pointerPHX 88 – 85 DET · PHX 40% → 52% +12PHX 40% → 52%+12 pts
- Q47:57Jaden Ivey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)PHX 94 – 94 DET · DET 43% → 58% +15DET 43% → 58%+15 pts
- Q43:09Grayson Allen makes running layup (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 100 – 102 DET · PHX 17% → 30% +12PHX 17% → 30%+12 pts
- Q42:29Cade Cunningham makes 5-foot two point shot (Tobias Harris assists)PHX 100 – 104 DET · DET 72% → 85% +13DET 72% → 85%+13 pts
- Q41:32Grayson Allen makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotPHX 102 – 105 DET · PHX 6% → 17% +11PHX 6% → 17%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML PHX +215 / DET -265
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- DET: Elo 66.4%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -229
- PHX +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 106.0 – 113.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +21 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +118 Elo | DET 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.8 | Points scored | 117.810th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 111.24th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +6.63rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 114.510th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 108.02nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 14–44th of 30 |
| 7th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 147830th of 30 |
| 6th of 301582 | Elo rating | 16055th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–12 | 21–17 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–2 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–23 | 17–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.