New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints36
- Derik QueenAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds11
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points26
- Cam SpencerAssists11
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–127
- Q41.3Cam Spencer makes 18-foot pullup jump shot133–127
- Q48.3Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2133–125
- Q48.3Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2132–125
- Q48.3GG Jackson personal take foul131–125
- Q416.7GG Jackson makes 1-foot driving dunk (Cam Spencer assists)131–125
- Q421.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 1131–123
- Q421.0GG Jackson shooting foul130–123
- Q421.0Trey Murphy III makes 9-foot two point shot130–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:25Cedric Coward makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jock Landale assists)NO 115 – 117 MEM · MEM 46% → 69% +23MEM 46% → 69%+23 pts
- Q42:10Cam Spencer makes 26-foot three pointer (Cedric Coward assists)NO 122 – 120 MEM · MEM 12% → 34% +21MEM 12% → 34%+21 pts
- Q41:35Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layup (Cam Spencer assists)NO 122 – 123 MEM · MEM 41% → 64% +23MEM 41% → 64%+23 pts
- Q41:25Zion Williamson makes driving layupNO 124 – 123 MEM · NO 36% → 60% +24NO 36% → 60%+24 pts
- Q458.9Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)NO 128 – 123 MEM · NO 75% → 96% +21NO 75% → 96%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML NO +164 / MEM -198
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5.5
- MEM 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 70.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MEM -175
- NO +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.0 – 122.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1325 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −45 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Santi Aldama −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +155 Elo | MEM 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.7 | Points scored | 115.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.0 | Points allowed | 116.217th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.3 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 110.625th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.4 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–17 | Road vs home | 9–1223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 29th of 301325 | Elo rating | 150214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−45 Elo- Santi Aldama right knee soreness−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–23 | 18–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 19–23 | 9–17 |
| Overs–unders | 24–22 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–8 MEM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Nov 26MEM 133 @ NO 128Picked MEM 59%Hit
- Oct 22NO 122 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Mar 9MEM 107 @ NO 104Picked MEM 79%Hit
- Jan 24NO 126 @ MEM 139Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Dec 27MEM 132 @ NO 124Picked MEM 71%Hit
- Nov 29NO 109 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 84%Hit
- Feb 12NO 96 @ MEM 87Picked NO 59%Hit
- Dec 26MEM 116 @ NO 115Picked NO 72%Miss