Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints32
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds15
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints23
- Ja MorantAssists12
- Jock LandaleRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–122
- Q40.0Grizzlies offensive team rebound124–122
- Q40.0Ja Morant misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot124–122
- Q45.1Jaylen Wells defensive rebound124–122
- Q47.9Jalen Johnson misses 14-foot step back jumpshot124–122
- Q427.4Luke Kennard defensive rebound124–122
- Q429.5Jaren Jackson Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2124–122
- Q429.5Kentavious Caldwell-Pope enters the game for Jock Landale124–122
- Q429.5Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2124–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:44Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot running jump shot (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 119 – 114 MEM · ATL 66% → 86% +20ATL 66% → 86%+20 pts
- Q41:43Ja Morant makes 1-foot running dunkATL 119 – 118 MEM · MEM 21% → 40% +19MEM 21% → 40%+19 pts
- Q41:23CJ McCollum makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 122 – 118 MEM · ATL 62% → 89% +27ATL 62% → 89%+27 pts
- Q41:09Cedric Coward makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)ATL 122 – 121 MEM · MEM 9% → 37% +28MEM 9% → 37%+28 pts
- Q446.1Jalen Johnson makes 11-foot turnaround jump shotATL 124 – 121 MEM · ATL 66% → 89% +23ATL 66% → 89%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML ATL +100 / MEM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4.5
- MEM 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 67.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.0 – 120.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +5 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −6, Santi Aldama −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +126 Elo | MEM 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 115.120th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 116.017th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 110.625th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 9–1123rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301449 | Elo rating | 150914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+5 Elo- Scotty Pippen Jr. left toe−6 Elo
- Santi Aldama right knee soreness−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–24 | 18–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 9–17 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.