Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints21
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds17
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints32
- Dyson DanielsAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–110
- Q41.4Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound112–110
- Q43.7Kyle Kuzma blocks CJ McCollum 's 21-foot fade away jump shot112–110
- Q411.4Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2112–110
- Q411.4Corey Kispert enters the game for Dyson Daniels111–110
- Q411.4Bucks offensive team rebound111–110
- Q411.4Ryan Rollins misses free throw 1 of 2111–110
- Q411.4Dyson Daniels personal take foul111–110
- Q412.6Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)111–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:27Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)MIL 101 – 100 ATL · ATL 18% → 41% +23ATL 18% → 41%+23 pts
- Q41:29AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 104 – 102 ATL · MIL 38% → 72% +34MIL 38% → 72%+34 pts
- Q41:10Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)MIL 104 – 105 ATL · ATL 25% → 63% +38ATL 25% → 63%+38 pts
- Q454.8Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 107 – 105 ATL · MIL 35% → 77% +42MIL 35% → 77%+42 pts
- Q412.6Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)MIL 111 – 110 ATL · ATL <1% → 22% +22ATL <1% → 22%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML MIL +100 / ATL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 115.5 – 117.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −29 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +21 Elo | ATL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 117.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 119.225th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.3 | Margin | −1.520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 114.117th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.0 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–14 | Road vs home | 7–1225th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301442 | Elo rating | 145421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–23 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–4 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Mar 30ATL 145 @ MIL 124Picked MIL 61%Miss
- Mar 4MIL 127 @ ATL 121Picked MIL 66%Hit
- Feb 7MIL 110 @ ATL 115Picked MIL 56%Miss
- Dec 14ATL 102 @ MIL 110Picked MIL 60%Hit
- Dec 4ATL 119 @ MIL 104Picked MIL 61%Miss
- Mar 30MIL 122 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 51%Miss
- Dec 2ATL 121 @ MIL 132Picked MIL 66%Hit
- Oct 29ATL 127 @ MIL 110Picked MIL 56%Miss