Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points16
- Cedric CowardAssists5
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Pelicans- Derik QueenPoints22
- Derik QueenAssists7
- Derik QueenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–114
- Q418.5Herbert Jones defensive rebound106–114
- Q421.5Cedric Coward misses driving floating jump shot106–114
- Q432.4Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 2106–114
- Q432.4Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2106–113
- Q432.4Cedric Coward personal foul106–112
- Q434.2Cedric Coward makes two point shot106–112
- Q438.7Cedric Coward defensive rebound104–112
- Q442.0Herbert Jones misses free throw 2 of 2104–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:01Cam Spencer makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)MEM 64 – 58 NO · MEM 53% → 62% +9MEM 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q38:11Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Derik Queen assists)MEM 70 – 71 NO · NO 49% → 59% +10NO 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q31:48Jose Alvarado makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)MEM 76 – 82 NO · NO 66% → 76% +10NO 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q31:20Karlo Matkovic makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jose Alvarado assists)MEM 76 – 85 NO · NO 76% → 84% +8NO 76% → 84%+8 pts
- Q43:29Cam Spencer makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)MEM 100 – 105 NO · MEM 5% → 15% +10MEM 5% → 15%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NO -3.5
- ML MEM +130 / NO -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- NO 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- NO: Elo 48.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -140
- MEM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.5 – 117.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1356 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | +20 | MEM: Missing Ty Jerome −22, Scotty Pippen Jr. −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +13 Elo | MEM 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 114.421st of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 121.228th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −6.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 110.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 102.312th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 7–1929th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15243rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301473 | Elo rating | 135627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−48 Elo- Ty Jerome injury/illness−22 Elo
- Scotty Pippen Jr. injury/illness−9 Elo
Pelicans
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–26 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 10–18 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders | 19–26 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 8–3 NO in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Jan 23NO 133 @ MEM 127Picked MEM 64%Miss
- Nov 26MEM 133 @ NO 128Picked MEM 59%Hit
- Oct 22NO 122 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Mar 9MEM 107 @ NO 104Picked MEM 79%Hit
- Jan 24NO 126 @ MEM 139Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Dec 27MEM 132 @ NO 124Picked MEM 71%Hit
- Nov 29NO 109 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 84%Hit
- Feb 12NO 96 @ MEM 87Picked NO 59%Hit