Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints17
- Cam SpencerAssists13
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds8
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints33
- Amen ThompsonAssists14
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–108
- Q413.4Santi Aldama bad pass
turnover (Tari Eason steals)99–108
- Q415.4Kevin Durant enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate99–108
- Q415.4Kevin Durant enters the game for Alperen Sengun99–108
- Q415.4Grizzlies Full timeout99–108
- Q415.4Tari Eason makes free throw 2 of 299–108
- Q415.4Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Kevin Durant99–107
- Q415.4Rockets offensive team rebound99–107
- Q415.4Tari Eason misses free throw 1 of 299–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:57Santi Aldama makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 63 – 56 HOU · MEM 41% → 51% +10MEM 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q36:56Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot running jump shot (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 66 – 58 HOU · MEM 45% → 55% +10MEM 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q32:31Vince Williams Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)MEM 77 – 69 HOU · MEM 50% → 61% +11MEM 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q350.4Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)MEM 77 – 74 HOU · HOU 44% → 56% +12HOU 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q410:58Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)MEM 79 – 81 HOU · HOU 62% → 73% +12HOU 62% → 73%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -11.5
- ML MEM +390 / HOU -520
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6
- HOU 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 73.2%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -411
- MEM +411 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 107.0 – 118.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −46 | +5 | MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +174 Elo | HOU 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 81.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 80.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 80.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 116.913th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 110.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +6.14th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 117.15th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 110.97th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.7 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 15–31st of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 17th of 301489 | Elo rating | 15776th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−46 Elo- Scotty Pippen Jr. left toe−10 Elo
Rockets
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–25 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 9–17 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 19–24 | 20–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–7 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 5HOU 124 @ MEM 109Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Jan 30HOU 119 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Jan 13MEM 118 @ HOU 120Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Jan 9HOU 119 @ MEM 115Picked MEM 57%Miss
- Oct 25MEM 108 @ HOU 128Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Feb 14HOU 113 @ MEM 121Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Dec 15HOU 103 @ MEM 96Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Dec 13MEM 104 @ HOU 117Picked HOU 69%Hit