Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints32
- Amen ThompsonAssists7
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds10
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints18
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–104
- Q419.2Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie111–104
- Q419.2Ausar Thompson enters the game for Daniss Jenkins111–104
- Q419.2Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson111–104
- Q419.2Rockets defensive team rebound111–104
- Q421.7Duncan Robinson misses 27-foot three point jumper111–104
- Q428.2Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2111–104
- Q428.2Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard110–104
- Q428.2Daniss Jenkins enters the game for Ausar Thompson110–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:57Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)HOU 68 – 62 DET · HOU 54% → 64% +10HOU 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q410:20Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 90 – 83 DET · HOU 63% → 74% +12HOU 63% → 74%+12 pts
- Q48:54Ronald Holland II makes 22-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)HOU 92 – 86 DET · DET 17% → 27% +11DET 17% → 27%+11 pts
- Q48:34Daniss Jenkins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)HOU 94 – 89 DET · DET 19% → 31% +12DET 19% → 31%+12 pts
- Q45:19Josh Okogie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 101 – 93 DET · HOU 75% → 88% +12HOU 75% → 88%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML HOU +145 / DET -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.1 pts
- DET: Elo 70.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -156
- HOU +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 106.5 – 111.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1620 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +11 | +37 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +147 Elo | DET 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 117.211th of 30 |
| 4th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 109.93rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +7.32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 113.913th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 106.82nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 102.511th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 17–43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148227th of 30 |
| 7th of 301564 | Elo rating | 16203rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–22 | 23–19 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–21 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 17–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.