Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints36
- Amen ThompsonAssists9
- Tari EasonRebounds9
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints36
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Joel EmbiidRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game122–128
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime122–128
- OT6.4Tyrese Maxey makes running dunk (Joel Embiid assists)122–128
- OT13.7Amen Thompson lost ball turnover (VJ Edgecombe steals)122–126
- OT18.9Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2122–126
- OT18.9Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2122–125
- OT18.9Amen Thompson personal take foul122–124
- OT23.3Kevin Durant makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Tari Eason assists)122–124
- OT23.7Tari Eason offensive rebound120–124
- OT27.5Kevin Durant misses 28-foot three point jumper120–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:11Paul George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)HOU 113 – 111 PHI · PHI 11% → 30% +20PHI 11% → 30%+20 pts
- Q41:31Tyrese Maxey makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Joel Embiid assists)HOU 113 – 113 PHI · PHI 27% → 49% +22PHI 27% → 49%+22 pts
- Q41:09Kevin Durant makes 14-foot pullup jump shotHOU 115 – 113 PHI · HOU 51% → 76% +25HOU 51% → 76%+25 pts
- Q440.1Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot (Paul George assists)HOU 115 – 115 PHI · PHI 18% → 49% +31PHI 18% → 49%+31 pts
- OT4:18Paul George makes 25-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)HOU 115 – 118 PHI · PHI 48% → 69% +20PHI 48% → 69%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -135 / PHI +114
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.5 – 110.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | +48 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 116.515th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 115.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 112.620th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 111.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 101.716th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 11–1220th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149319th of 30 |
| 7th of 301572 | Elo rating | 146221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 25–17 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–20 | 15–10 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–22 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.