Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints25
- Pascal SiakamAssists7
- Aaron NesmithRebounds11
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–113
- Q413.2shot clock turnover104–113
- Q437.2Jarace Walker makes 16-foot fade away jump shot104–113
- Q447.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 2 of 2102–113
- Q447.1Ben Sheppard enters the game for Jay Huff102–112
- Q447.1Isaiah Jackson enters the game for Pascal Siakam102–112
- Q447.1Johnny Furphy enters the game for Quenton Jackson102–112
- Q447.1Micah Potter enters the game for Aaron Nesmith102–112
- Q447.1Jarace Walker enters the game for Andrew Nembhard102–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:30Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot running jump shot (VJ Edgecombe assists)IND 58 – 56 PHI · PHI 48% → 57% +9PHI 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q38:47Andrew Nembhard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 61 – 57 PHI · IND 40% → 50% +9IND 40% → 50%+9 pts
- Q31:30Jay Huff makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 77 – 78 PHI · IND 26% → 36% +10IND 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q49:19Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 88 – 86 PHI · IND 37% → 51% +14IND 37% → 51%+14 pts
- Q49:02Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotIND 88 – 88 PHI · PHI 49% → 59% +10PHI 49% → 59%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6.5
- ML IND +210 / PHI -258
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 70.0%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -223
- IND +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.0 – 118.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +32 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +147 Elo | PHI 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.2 | Points scored | 116.814th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 115.715th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | +1.114th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.716th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–17 | Road vs home | 10–1120th of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149021st of 30 |
| 26th of 301417 | Elo rating | 146120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–21 | 24–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 14–10 |
| Underdog | 19–17 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–27 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–3 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Dec 12IND 105 @ PHI 115Picked PHI 67%Hit
- Mar 14IND 112 @ PHI 100Picked IND 84%Hit
- Jan 18PHI 102 @ IND 115Picked IND 79%Hit
- Dec 13IND 121 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 69%Miss
- Oct 27PHI 118 @ IND 114Picked IND 75%Miss
- Jan 25PHI 122 @ IND 134Picked PHI 59%Miss
- Nov 14IND 132 @ PHI 126Picked PHI 62%Miss
- Nov 12IND 126 @ PHI 137Picked PHI 59%Hit