Phoenix Suns at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints27
- Grayson AllenAssists6
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
76ers- VJ EdgecombePoints25
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–110
- Q412.8Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound116–110
- Q417.1Quentin Grimes misses driving layup116–110
- Q420.6Royce O'Neale enters the game for Jalen Green116–110
- Q420.6Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Mark Williams116–110
- Q420.6Jalen Green traveling turnover116–110
- Q423.9Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 3 of 3116–110
- Q423.9Mark Williams enters the game for Collin Gillespie116–109
- Q423.9Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 3116–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:29Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot running jump shot (Dillon Brooks assists)PHX 68 – 68 PHI · PHX 44% → 54% +10PHX 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q37:06Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)PHX 68 – 71 PHI · PHI 46% → 56% +10PHI 46% → 56%+10 pts
- Q36:53Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 71 – 71 PHI · PHX 44% → 54% +10PHX 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q36:15Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 74 – 71 PHI · PHX 54% → 64% +10PHX 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q31:52Jordan Goodwin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)PHX 88 – 82 PHI · PHX 65% → 75% +10PHX 65% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML PHX -142 / PHI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6.5
- PHX 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +17.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 73.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.5 – 110.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHI and PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +39 | −56 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Paul George −30 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +180 Elo | PHX 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.7 | Points scored | 116.714th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 115.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +1.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.5 | Pace | 101.618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 11–1120th of 30 |
| 7th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148724th of 30 |
| 6th of 301586 | Elo rating | 146620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−56 Elo- Paul George left knee−30 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–13 | 25–16 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–3 | 15–10 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.