Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints27
- Grayson AllenAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds8
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points23
- Terance MannAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–117
- Q410.9Terance Mann bad pass
turnover (Mark Williams steals)126–117
- Q418.0shot clock turnover126–117
- Q418.0Suns offensive team rebound126–117
- Q418.0Dillon Brooks misses 14-foot turnaround jump shot126–117
- Q418.5Suns offensive team rebound126–117
- Q418.8Nic Claxton blocks Grayson Allen 's 3-foot driving layup126–117
- Q442.0Terance Mann makes two point shot (Drake Powell assists)126–117
- Q451.9Devin Booker makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot126–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:07Mark Williams makes tip shotPHX 114 – 107 BKN · PHX 84% → 90% +6PHX 84% → 90%+6 pts
- Q45:34Michael Porter Jr. makes tip shotPHX 114 – 109 BKN · BKN 9% → 16% +6BKN 9% → 16%+6 pts
- Q45:30Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 117 – 109 BKN · PHX 84% → 93% +9PHX 84% → 93%+9 pts
- Q44:01Noah Clowney makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Terance Mann assists)PHX 118 – 113 BKN · BKN 7% → 13% +6BKN 7% → 13%+6 pts
- Q43:40Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 121 – 114 BKN · PHX 83% → 94% +11PHX 83% → 94%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -9.5
- ML PHX -395 / BKN +310
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -10
- PHX 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 83.8%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- PHX -327
- BKN +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.0 – 102.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1365 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +18 | −31 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −19, Egor Demin −10 (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +285 Elo | PHX 83.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 81.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.4 | Points scored | 108.830th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 114.010th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −5.325th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 109.926th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.7 | Pace | 98.727th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 6–1529th of 30 |
| 6th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 148724th of 30 |
| 6th of 301584 | Elo rating | 136527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−31 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring−19 Elo
- Egor Demin left plantar fascia−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–12 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–2 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 17–21 |
| Overs–unders | 17–25 | 16–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–2 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.