Phoenix Suns at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints27
- Collin GillespieAssists6
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints23
- Miles McBrideAssists5
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–99
- Q46.0Suns defensive team rebound106–99
- Q48.7OG Anunoby misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot106–99
- Q419.1Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2106–99
- Q419.1Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Mark Williams105–99
- Q419.1Grayson Allen makes free throw 1 of 2105–99
- Q419.1Karl-Anthony Towns personal foul104–99
- Q424.3Karl-Anthony Towns makes 1-foot driving dunk (OG Anunoby assists)104–99
- Q433.0Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound104–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:54Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot running jump shot (Miles McBride assists)PHX 65 – 67 NY · NY 47% → 57% +10NY 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q31:34Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 77 – 77 NY · PHX 38% → 49% +12PHX 38% → 49%+12 pts
- Q48:37Collin Gillespie makes 10-foot fade away jump shot (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 87 – 85 NY · PHX 50% → 59% +10PHX 50% → 59%+10 pts
- Q48:25Miles McBride makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotPHX 87 – 87 NY · NY 41% → 50% +10NY 41% → 50%+10 pts
- Q48:11Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 90 – 87 NY · PHX 50% → 64% +15PHX 50% → 64%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML PHX -105 / NY -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- NY 35%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.7 pts
- NY: Elo 35.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -104
- PHX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.5 – 113.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −63 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | NY crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +105 Elo | PHX 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.6 | Points scored | 119.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 115.113th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +3.98th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 118.23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 114.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.522nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 13th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 16–43rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 148724th of 30 |
| 6th of 301578 | Elo rating | 155212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–12 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–2 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–3 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.