Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints19
- Nikola VucevicAssists5
- Jalen SmithRebounds13
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points26
- Nolan TraoreAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–112
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound109–112
- Q40.0Nikola Vucevic misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot109–112
- Q42.5Noah Clowney makes free throw 2 of 2109–112
- Q42.5Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Isaac Okoro109–111
- Q42.5Terance Mann enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.109–111
- Q42.5Noah Clowney makes free throw 1 of 2109–111
- Q42.5Tre Jones personal take foul109–110
- Q43.2Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Terance Mann109–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:48Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot running jump shot (Noah Clowney assists)CHI 100 – 105 BKN · BKN 71% → 91% +21BKN 71% → 91%+21 pts
- Q41:24Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)CHI 102 – 108 BKN · BKN 82% → 97% +15BKN 82% → 97%+15 pts
- Q430.7Isaac Okoro makes 1-foot running dunkCHI 107 – 108 BKN · CHI 6% → 31% +24CHI 6% → 31%+24 pts
- Q411.4Tre Jones makes running layup (Isaac Okoro assists)CHI 109 – 108 BKN · CHI 20% → 80% +59CHI 20% → 80%+59 pts
- Q45.4Michael Porter Jr. makes driving layup (Nolan Traore assists)CHI 109 – 110 BKN · BKN 11% → 89% +77BKN 11% → 89%+77 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML CHI -105 / BKN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -0.5
- BKN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- BKN: Elo 52.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BKN -104
- CHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.5 – 113.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +36 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +20 Elo | BKN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 108.830th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 113.910th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 109.826th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 114.920th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.2 | Pace | 98.827th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 19th of 307–12 | Road vs home | 5–1530th of 30 |
| 26th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149220th of 30 |
| 24th of 301434 | Elo rating | 137228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–21 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders | 18–22 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–5 BKN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.