Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Nolan TraorePoints16
- Cam ThomasAssists10
- Noah ClowneyRebounds8
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints24
- Tre JonesAssists10
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–124
- Q413.7Kevin Huerter makes 1-foot layup (Lachlan Olbrich assists)102–124
- Q431.4Tyrese Martin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)102–122
- Q437.6Tyrese Martin defensive rebound99–122
- Q442.2Jevon Carter misses 24-foot running jump shot99–122
- Q445.0Julian Phillips defensive rebound99–122
- Q447.7Tyrese Martin misses running layup99–122
- Q453.1Terance Mann defensive rebound99–122
- Q454.9Dalen Terry misses driving layup99–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:22Egor Demin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)BKN 3 – 1 CHI · BKN 29% → 35% +6BKN 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q110:24Coby White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)BKN 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 65% → 71% +6CHI 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q110:00Danny Wolf makes 25-foot running jump shot (Terance Mann assists)BKN 6 – 4 CHI · BKN 29% → 35% +6BKN 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q19:15Coby White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)BKN 6 – 9 CHI · CHI 69% → 74% +5CHI 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q16:39Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Smith assists)BKN 10 – 16 CHI · CHI 74% → 79% +5CHI 74% → 79%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -7.5
- ML BKN +210 / CHI -258
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3.5
- CHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 63.2%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -223
- BKN +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.0 – 115.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +13 | BKN: Missing Michael Porter Jr. −38 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +94 Elo | CHI 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30108.9 | Points scored | 117.311th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 120.727th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−4.8 | Margin | −3.424th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 112.718th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 116.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.9 | Pace | 104.12nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–12 | Road vs home | 12–915th of 30 |
| 24th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148029th of 30 |
| 27th of 301377 | Elo rating | 142825th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+7 Elo- Michael Porter Jr. rest−38 Elo
Bulls
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–20 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–24 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 6–2 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Jan 16CHI 109 @ BKN 112Picked BKN 51%Hit
- Dec 3BKN 113 @ CHI 103Picked CHI 73%Miss
- Mar 13BKN 110 @ CHI 116Picked CHI 52%Hit
- Dec 2BKN 102 @ CHI 128Picked CHI 70%Hit
- Nov 1CHI 112 @ BKN 120Picked BKN 53%Hit
- Mar 29CHI 108 @ BKN 125Picked CHI 55%Miss
- Nov 26CHI 109 @ BKN 118Picked BKN 60%Hit
- Nov 3BKN 109 @ CHI 107Picked BKN 50%Hit