New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints21
- Saddiq BeyAssists5
- Saddiq BeyRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints29
- Jaylin WilliamsAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–104
- Q40.2Jeremiah Fears offensive rebound95–104
- Q42.8Herbert Jones misses 23-foot three point jumper95–104
- Q43.6Herbert Jones offensive rebound95–104
- Q47.4Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot95–104
- Q412.7Herbert Jones offensive rebound95–104
- Q416.7Trey Murphy III misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot95–104
- Q429.7Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 295–104
- Q429.7Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 295–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210.9Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)NO 46 – 48 OKC · OKC 75% → 82% +6OKC 75% → 82%+6 pts
- Q310:08Chet Holmgren makes alley oop dunk (Jaylin Williams assists)NO 47 – 54 OKC · OKC 83% → 90% +7OKC 83% → 90%+7 pts
- Q39:52Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)NO 52 – 54 OKC · NO 10% → 19% +9NO 10% → 19%+9 pts
- Q45:05Jeremiah Fears makes 22-foot jump bank shot (Derik Queen assists)NO 87 – 92 OKC · NO 5% → 13% +7NO 5% → 13%+7 pts
- Q44:04Aaron Wiggins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)NO 87 – 95 OKC · OKC 89% → 96% +7OKC 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -14.5
- ML NO +575 / OKC -850
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12
- OKC 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 87.2%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -604
- NO +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 109.5 – 124.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1358 | 1689 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −17 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Missing Alex Caruso −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +333 Elo | OKC 87.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 88.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 88.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.8 | Points scored | 120.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 107.91st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.7 | Margin | +12.91st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 117.73rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 105.11st of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.419th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305–17 | Road vs home | 20–42nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 148724th of 30 |
| 27th of 301358 | Elo rating | 16891st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−17 Elo- Alex Caruso right adductor strain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–23 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 23–24 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | — |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–12 OKC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.
- Nov 17OKC 126 @ NO 109Picked OKC 93%Hit
- Nov 2NO 106 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Apr 13OKC 115 @ NO 100Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Feb 10NO 101 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Dec 7OKC 119 @ NO 109Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Nov 13NO 88 @ OKC 106Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Apr 29OKC 97 @ NO 89PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 27OKC 106 @ NO 85PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Hit