Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints27
- Andrew NembhardAssists11
- Micah PotterRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints47
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists4
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–114
- Q41.1Chet Holmgren defensive rebound117–114
- Q41.1Pascal Siakam misses free throw 2 of 2117–114
- Q41.1Pacers offensive team rebound117–114
- Q41.1Pascal Siakam misses free throw 1 of 2117–114
- Q41.1Jaylin Williams personal foul117–114
- Q41.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound117–114
- Q43.0Isaiah Joe misses 22-foot three point jumper117–114
- Q46.0Isaiah Joe enters the game for Cason Wallace117–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:21Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)IND 107 – 102 OKC · OKC 10% → 24% +14OKC 10% → 24%+14 pts
- Q42:57Micah Potter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 110 – 102 OKC · IND 78% → 92% +14IND 78% → 92%+14 pts
- Q424.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layupIND 113 – 112 OKC · OKC 5% → 32% +27OKC 5% → 32%+27 pts
- Q410.3Jarace Walker makes free throw 1 of 2IND 114 – 112 OKC · IND 79% → 95% +16IND 79% → 95%+16 pts
- Q47.8Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2IND 115 – 114 OKC · OKC 3% → 17% +15OKC 3% → 17%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML IND +600 / OKC -900
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -13
- OKC 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 88.7%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -630
- IND +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 105.5 – 121.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1712 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | −27 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Missing Aaron Wiggins −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +358 Elo | OKC 88.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 88.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 88.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 121.41st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 107.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.4 | Margin | +13.61st of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 118.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 104.81st of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.519th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 302–19 | Road vs home | 20–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149121st of 30 |
| 26th of 301408 | Elo rating | 17121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−27 Elo- Aaron Wiggins sore right groin−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–23 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 23–22 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | — |
| Overs–unders | 16–29 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–7 OKC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- Oct 23OKC 141 @ IND 135Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Jun 22IND 91 @ OKC 103PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Hit
- Jun 19OKC 91 @ IND 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 66%Miss
- Jun 16IND 109 @ OKC 120PlayoffsPicked OKC 74%Hit
- Jun 13OKC 111 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked OKC 68%Hit
- Jun 11OKC 107 @ IND 116PlayoffsPicked OKC 66%Miss
- Jun 8IND 107 @ OKC 123PlayoffsPicked OKC 81%Hit
- Jun 5IND 111 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 80%Miss