Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists11
- Kenrich WilliamsRebounds8
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints19
- Bobby PortisAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–102
- Q420.1Branden Carlson defensive rebound122–102
- Q423.8Andre Jackson Jr. misses driving floating jump shot122–102
- Q438.2Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound122–102
- Q441.3Ousmane Dieng misses 12-foot fade away jump shot122–102
- Q447.9Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound122–102
- Q450.9Andre Jackson Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper122–102
- Q41:15Branden Carlson makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Kenrich Williams assists)122–102
- Q41:23Andre Jackson Jr. personal foul120–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:44Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 3 – 0 MIL · OKC 81% → 85% +4OKC 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q110:29Ajay Mitchell makes 1-foot running dunkOKC 5 – 0 MIL · OKC 85% → 87% +2OKC 85% → 87%+2 pts
- Q19:48Gary Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)OKC 7 – 3 MIL · MIL 11% → 14% +3MIL 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q19:36Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 10 – 3 MIL · OKC 86% → 89% +3OKC 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q18:51Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point shotOKC 12 – 5 MIL · OKC 87% → 89% +2OKC 87% → 89%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -12.5
- ML OKC -550 / MIL +410
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 78.6%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -432
- MIL +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.0 – 106.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1706 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −20 | OKC: Missing Aaron Wiggins −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +226 Elo | OKC 78.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 78.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.4 | Points scored | 112.426th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 115.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.5 | Margin | −3.224th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.8 | Defense rating | 115.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–5 | Road vs home | 9–1021st of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149121st of 30 |
| 1st of 301706 | Elo rating | 144824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−17 Elo- Aaron Wiggins sore right groin−8 Elo
Bucks
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–22 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–22 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | — | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 17–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–2 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.