Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints32
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Pascal SiakamRebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–119
- Q40.1Pacers offensive team rebound104–119
- Q40.3Isaiah Jackson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot104–119
- Q46.1shot clock turnover104–119
- Q430.8Jarace Walker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)104–119
- Q443.7Baylor Scheierman makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot101–119
- Q451.3Jarace Walker makes driving layup (Micah Potter assists)101–117
- Q41:12Pacers defensive team rebound99–117
- Q41:13Ron Harper Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper99–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:44Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)IND 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 79% → 83% +4BOS 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q16:21Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)IND 10 – 10 BOS · IND 18% → 22% +5IND 18% → 22%+5 pts
- Q12:08Baylor Scheierman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)IND 18 – 25 BOS · BOS 83% → 87% +4BOS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q12.6Payton Pritchard makes 31-foot running jump shot (Baylor Scheierman assists)IND 20 – 30 BOS · BOS 86% → 90% +5BOS 86% → 90%+5 pts
- Q31:22Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)IND 76 – 88 BOS · BOS 91% → 95% +4BOS 91% → 95%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML IND +360 / BOS -470
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10.5
- BOS 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 84.8%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -379
- IND +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 107.5 – 118.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1645 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | −1 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +298 Elo | BOS 84.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 77.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 116.714th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 110.02nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.2 | Margin | +6.73rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 119.12nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–18 | Road vs home | 12–711th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148129th of 30 |
| 26th of 301411 | Elo rating | 16452nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–22 | 24–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–28 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–10 BOS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.
- Jan 12BOS 96 @ IND 98Picked BOS 64%Miss
- Dec 26BOS 140 @ IND 122Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Dec 22IND 95 @ BOS 103Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Dec 29IND 123 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 81%Miss
- Dec 27IND 105 @ BOS 142Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Oct 30BOS 132 @ IND 135Picked BOS 70%Miss
- May 27BOS 105 @ IND 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 25BOS 114 @ IND 111PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit