Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints23
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Immanuel QuickleyRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints24
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–101
- Q41.0Isaiah Joe makes 22-foot step back jumpshot103–101
- Q44.7Kenrich Williams enters the game for Aaron Wiggins103–99
- Q44.7Ja'Kobe Walter personal foul103–99
- Q48.2Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2103–99
- Q48.2Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 1 of 2102–99
- Q48.2Aaron Wiggins personal foul101–99
- Q48.2Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili101–99
- Q48.2Jaylin Williams enters the game for Kenrich Williams101–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:46Kenrich Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)TOR 86 – 88 OKC · OKC 60% → 73% +13OKC 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q43:36Scottie Barnes makes 1-foot dunk (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 95 – 96 OKC · TOR 21% → 34% +13TOR 21% → 34%+13 pts
- Q41:49Immanuel Quickley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 98 – 97 OKC · TOR 24% → 54% +30TOR 24% → 54%+30 pts
- Q41:16Immanuel Quickley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 101 – 97 OKC · TOR 57% → 87% +30TOR 57% → 87%+30 pts
- Q457.2Chet Holmgren makes two point shotTOR 101 – 99 OKC · OKC 9% → 27% +18OKC 9% → 27%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML TOR +390 / OKC -520
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 78.3%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -411
- TOR +411 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.0 – 118.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1699 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −19 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Missing Alex Caruso −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | TOR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +223 Elo | OKC 78.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 82.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 82.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 80.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 121.31st of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 108.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +13.21st of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 117.93rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 105.11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.518th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 20–31st of 30 |
| 24th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 148923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 16991st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−19 Elo- Alex Caruso right abductor muscle−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–23 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 23–23 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | — |
| Overs–unders | 19–28 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–4 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.