Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists8
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds9
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints23
- Zach LaVineAssists5
- Dylan CardwellRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–109
- Q411.2shot clock turnover122–109
- Q425.3Dennis Schroder personal foul122–109
- Q443.1Raptors defensive team rebound122–109
- Q446.4Zach LaVine misses 25-foot three point jumper122–109
- Q455.8Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)122–109
- Q41:07Ochai Agbaji defensive rebound119–109
- Q41:07(01:07) [Raptors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Raptors] retain their timeout119–109
- Q41:07Raptors Full timeout119–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:05Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)TOR 56 – 64 SAC · SAC 55% → 63% +9SAC 55% → 63%+9 pts
- Q38:39Precious Achiuwa makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)TOR 64 – 71 SAC · SAC 53% → 62% +9SAC 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q37:55Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 27-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 69 – 71 SAC · TOR 43% → 53% +10TOR 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q34:09Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 81 – 77 SAC · TOR 62% → 72% +10TOR 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q32:26Jamal Shead makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)TOR 87 – 80 SAC · TOR 72% → 81% +9TOR 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -5.5
- ML TOR -205 / SAC +170
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- SAC +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.0 – 110.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SAC and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +8 | −35 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +56 Elo | TOR 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 63.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 110.828th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 120.727th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 108.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 117.727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.716th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 9–1524th of 30 |
| 26th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 15381st of 30 |
| 18th of 301476 | Elo rating | 142725th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–23 | 17–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 15–25 |
| Overs–unders | 18–27 | 20–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–3 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.