Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints25
- Pelle LarssonAssists9
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds9
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints23
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Dylan CardwellRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–117
- Q421.1Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Russell Westbrook assists)130–117
- Q429.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 18-foot pullup jump shot130–114
- Q439.8Heat offensive team rebound128–114
- Q443.6Pelle Larsson misses 26-foot three point jumper128–114
- Q459.3Russell Westbrook makes driving layup (Zach LaVine assists)128–114
- Q41:04Nikola Jovic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)128–112
- Q41:24Heat offensive team rebound125–112
- Q41:24Pelle Larsson misses free throw flagrant 2 of 2125–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:04Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 3 – 2 SAC · MIA 57% → 63% +6MIA 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q210:38Simone Fontecchio makes 27-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 35 – 30 SAC · MIA 65% → 71% +7MIA 65% → 71%+7 pts
- Q28:36Bam Adebayo makes 28-foot running jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 43 – 36 SAC · MIA 69% → 75% +6MIA 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q28:02Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 46 – 38 SAC · MIA 71% → 77% +6MIA 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q38:42Bam Adebayo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 82 – 72 SAC · MIA 77% → 84% +7MIA 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML MIA -180 / SAC +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2.5
- MIA 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 40.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -161
- SAC +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 121.5 – 117.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −12 | +6 | MIA: Missing Kel'el Ware −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +66 Elo | SAC 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 110.628th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 120.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −9.929th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 107.929th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 117.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Pace | 101.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–14 | Road vs home | 9–1424th of 30 |
| 4th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 15391st of 30 |
| 18th of 301470 | Elo rating | 144225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−12 Elo- Kel'el Ware right hamstring−5 Elo
Kings
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–19 | 17–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 15–24 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 19–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–3 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.