Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints30
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds17
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints23
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Dylan CardwellRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–110
- Q41.0Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2117–110
- Q41.0Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2116–110
- Q41.0Maxime Raynaud enters the game for Dylan Cardwell115–110
- Q41.0Dylan Cardwell personal take foul115–110
- Q43.6Russell Westbrook makes 4-foot driving dunk115–110
- Q48.8Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound115–108
- Q49.9Shaedon Sharpe misses free throw 2 of 2115–108
- Q49.9Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2115–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:24Malik Monk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Precious Achiuwa assists)POR 39 – 39 SAC · SAC 41% → 49% +8SAC 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q27:27Sidy Cissoko makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 42 – 39 SAC · POR 51% → 59% +8POR 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q26:37Malik Monk makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)POR 44 – 42 SAC · SAC 36% → 43% +8SAC 36% → 43%+8 pts
- Q24:14Deni Avdija makes 30-foot three pointerPOR 49 – 45 SAC · POR 54% → 62% +8POR 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q33:57Shaedon Sharpe makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 87 – 76 SAC · POR 77% → 85% +7POR 77% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- POR -1.5
- ML POR -118 / SAC -102
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1.5
- POR 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- POR: Elo 44.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- POR -107
- SAC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 116.0 – 114.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | +11 | POR: Missing Jrue Holiday −15, Robert Williams III −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +38 Elo | SAC 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 110.628th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 120.627th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.1 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 107.929th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 117.627th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.716th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 15th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 9–1324th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 15371st of 30 |
| 18th of 301478 | Elo rating | 145222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+23 Elo- Jrue Holiday right calf−15 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−11 Elo
Kings
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–19 | 17–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 5–4 SAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 20POR 98 @ SAC 93Picked POR 61%Hit
- Dec 18SAC 133 @ POR 134Picked POR 74%Hit
- Mar 27POR 107 @ SAC 128Picked SAC 66%Hit
- Feb 6SAC 102 @ POR 108Picked SAC 52%Miss
- Nov 29SAC 106 @ POR 115Picked SAC 70%Miss
- Oct 28POR 98 @ SAC 111Picked SAC 85%Hit
- Apr 14POR 82 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 74%Hit
- Dec 26SAC 113 @ POR 130Picked SAC 63%Miss