Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints21
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints24
- Stephen CurryAssists11
- Quinten PostRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–135
- Q40.0(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)112–135
- Q40.7Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 48-foot jump bank shot (Buddy Hield assists)112–135
- Q42.0Keshad Johnson personal foul112–132
- Q42.0Malevy Leons defensive rebound112–132
- Q46.0Dru Smith misses 26-foot running jump shot112–132
- Q411.4Myron Gardner defensive rebound112–132
- Q413.2L.J. Cryer misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot112–132
- Q432.4Malevy Leons defensive rebound112–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:15Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)MIA 52 – 55 GS · GS 61% → 69% +8GS 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q22:50Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointerMIA 57 – 63 GS · GS 69% → 76% +7GS 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q21:40Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 62 – 65 GS · MIA 24% → 31% +7MIA 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q39:32Will Richard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)MIA 71 – 75 GS · GS 63% → 71% +8GS 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q36:49Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three pointerMIA 75 – 82 GS · GS 71% → 79% +8GS 71% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -5.5
- ML MIA +170 / GS -205
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6
- GS 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- GS: Elo 71.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- GS -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 117.0 – 122.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +26 | MIA: Usual rotation · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +161 Elo | GS 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 116.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 113.39th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.913th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 111.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Pace | 101.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–13 | Road vs home | 16–66th of 30 |
| 4th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 18th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15777th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–18 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–1 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.