Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints40
- Scottie BarnesAssists11
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds12
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints25
- Pat SpencerAssists5
- Quinten PostRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game145–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter145–127
- Q423.3Pat Spencer makes 2-foot driving dunk145–127
- Q435.6Alijah Martin makes free throw 2 of 2145–125
- Q435.6Alijah Martin makes free throw 1 of 2144–125
- Q435.6L.J. Cryer personal foul143–125
- Q449.8Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound143–125
- Q453.9Malevy Leons misses two point shot143–125
- Q41:01Malevy Leons offensive rebound143–125
- Q41:05Will Richard misses driving floating jump shot143–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:58Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot running jump shot (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 7 – 0 GS · TOR 47% → 53% +6TOR 47% → 53%+6 pts
- Q110:29Immanuel Quickley makes 24-foot running jump shot (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 10 – 0 GS · TOR 53% → 59% +6TOR 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q18:19Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 21 – 8 GS · TOR 60% → 66% +6TOR 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q13:08Gui Santos makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)TOR 32 – 21 GS · GS 29% → 36% +6GS 29% → 36%+6 pts
- Q15.9Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 22-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 41 – 28 GS · TOR 63% → 70% +7TOR 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML TOR +150 / GS -180
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3.5
- GS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- GS: Elo 64.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -161
- TOR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.0 – 114.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −26 | TOR: Usual rotation · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +104 Elo | GS 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 116.714th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 113.38th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +3.48th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 114.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 110.85th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 17–65th of 30 |
| 28th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301454 | Elo rating | 15867th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–23 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 17–16 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–27 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.