Toronto Raptors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Sandro MamukelashviliPoints22
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints21
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–98
- Q43.5shot clock turnover110–98
- Q43.5Trail Blazers offensive team rebound110–98
- Q43.5Scottie Barnes blocks Caleb Love 's 4-foot driving layup110–98
- Q43.6Caleb Love offensive rebound110–98
- Q47.0Scottie Barnes blocks Yang Hansen 's 7-foot two point shot110–98
- Q427.5Immanuel Quickley makes 2-foot two point shot110–98
- Q441.6Yang Hansen enters the game for Toumani Camara108–98
- Q441.6Javonte Cooke enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe108–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:50Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 79 – 78 POR · TOR 46% → 59% +13TOR 46% → 59%+13 pts
- Q410:24Jamison Battle makes 23-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 82 – 78 POR · TOR 59% → 72% +12TOR 59% → 72%+12 pts
- Q48:22Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three pointerTOR 88 – 85 POR · POR 20% → 31% +12POR 20% → 31%+12 pts
- Q47:11Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 93 – 87 POR · TOR 69% → 82% +13TOR 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q44:19Caleb Love makes 26-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)TOR 98 – 94 POR · POR 10% → 22% +12POR 10% → 22%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.7% of 394 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -3.5
- ML TOR -170 / POR +142
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -152
- POR +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 114.5 – 111.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +28 | +2 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −38, Robert Williams III −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 116.516th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 118.022nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −1.521st of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.3 | Pace | 103.57th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 13–1017th of 30 |
| 24th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15205th of 30 |
| 17th of 301486 | Elo rating | 149815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+2 Elo- Deni Avdija low back strain−38 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–23 | 26–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–27 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.