Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints32
- Pelle LarssonAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints27
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–127
- Q43.1shot clock turnover110–127
- Q425.7Caleb Love defensive rebound110–127
- Q429.2Bam Adebayo misses 7-foot two point shot110–127
- Q442.6Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound110–127
- Q445.2Caleb Love misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot110–127
- Q41:06Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound110–127
- Q41:10Simone Fontecchio misses 25-foot three point jumper110–127
- Q41:22Toumani Camara makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Shaedon Sharpe assists)110–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:06Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)MIA 61 – 64 POR · POR 56% → 64% +8POR 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q310:47Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot running jump shot (Deni Avdija assists)MIA 68 – 69 POR · POR 50% → 59% +9POR 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q310:15Jrue Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)MIA 68 – 72 POR · POR 59% → 67% +9POR 59% → 67%+9 pts
- Q39:57Caleb Love makes 25-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)MIA 70 – 75 POR · POR 62% → 70% +8POR 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q47:21Myron Gardner makes 28-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)MIA 103 – 110 POR · MIA 8% → 16% +8MIA 8% → 16%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML MIA +130 / POR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- POR: Elo 61.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- POR -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 115.5 – 119.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +44 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +80 Elo | POR 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 51.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 116.317th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 118.222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.921st of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 111.822nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 113.617th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Pace | 103.57th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 308–14 | Road vs home | 12–1019th of 30 |
| 5th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 15224th of 30 |
| 18th of 301486 | Elo rating | 148816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–19 | 25–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–1 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.