Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints26
- Kon KnueppelAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds19
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points26
- Cam SpencerAssists6
- John KoncharRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–97
- Q44.3GG Jackson makes two point shot (Cam Spencer assists)112–97
- Q413.1Sion James out of bounds bad pass turnover112–95
- Q422.6Jaylen Wells personal foul112–95
- Q444.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 25-foot running jump shot (GG Jackson assists)112–95
- Q449.2GG Jackson defensive rebound112–92
- Q452.3Tre Mann misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot112–92
- Q41:13Jaylen Wells makes 1-foot running dunk (Cedric Coward assists)112–92
- Q41:13Cedric Coward defensive rebound112–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:57Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)CHA 42 – 43 MEM · MEM 41% → 48% +8MEM 41% → 48%+8 pts
- Q27:34LaMelo Ball makes 22-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 45 – 43 MEM · CHA 52% → 59% +8CHA 52% → 59%+8 pts
- Q25:11Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 51 – 46 MEM · CHA 59% → 67% +8CHA 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q26.7Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Cam Spencer assists)CHA 59 – 55 MEM · MEM 27% → 35% +8MEM 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q20.8Miles Bridges makes 29-foot three pointerCHA 62 – 55 MEM · CHA 65% → 73% +8CHA 65% → 73%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -2.5
- ML CHA -135 / MEM +114
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1.5
- CHA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CHA: Elo 55.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CHA -123
- MEM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 117.0 – 114.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −7 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +37 Elo | CHA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.220th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 116.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 110.525th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.5 | Pace | 103.64th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 9–1322nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 148517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–20 | 19–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders | 19–28 | 19–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–2 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.