Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points17
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds7
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints30
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Ryan KalkbrennerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–130
- Q43.7Tidjane Salaun double dribble turnover93–130
- Q410.2Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound93–130
- Q413.4Ryan Kalkbrenner blocks Jabari Walker 's 7-foot driving layup93–130
- Q424.5Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)93–130
- Q443.9Jared McCain makes 25-foot three pointer93–127
- Q454.9Tidjane Salaun kicked ball violation90–127
- Q41:02Ryan Kalkbrenner lost ball turnover (Justin Edwards steals)90–127
- Q41:02Tidjane Salaun personal foul90–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:06Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)PHI 6 – 11 CHA · CHA 57% → 63% +6CHA 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q17:29LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)PHI 8 – 14 CHA · CHA 59% → 65% +6CHA 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q13:25Kon Knueppel makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)PHI 16 – 24 CHA · CHA 64% → 70% +6CHA 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q120.4Jabari Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 22 – 28 CHA · PHI 28% → 34% +6PHI 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q27:39Miles Bridges makes 26-foot running jump shot (Josh Green assists)PHI 28 – 44 CHA · CHA 81% → 86% +5CHA 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -1.5
- ML PHI +102 / CHA -122
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -6
- CHA 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +20.3 pts
- CHA: Elo 73.0%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- CHA -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.0 – 115.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −65 | +36 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +172 Elo | CHA 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 116.017th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 115.516th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.515th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 114.710th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 114.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.521st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 8–1325th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 148525th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301465 | Elo rating | 150116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–18 | 26–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–10 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 19–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–0 CHA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 9.
- Oct 25CHA 121 @ PHI 125Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Dec 20CHA 98 @ PHI 108Picked PHI 84%Hit
- Dec 16PHI 121 @ CHA 108Picked PHI 55%Hit
- Dec 3PHI 110 @ CHA 104Picked PHI 62%Hit
- Nov 10CHA 105 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Mar 16CHA 98 @ PHI 109Picked PHI 61%Hit
- Mar 1CHA 114 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 67%Hit
- Jan 20PHI 97 @ CHA 89Picked PHI 81%Hit