New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Josh HartAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds13
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints38
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–109
- Q40.6Joel Embiid bad pass
turnover (OG Anunoby steals)112–109
- Q43.7Joel Embiid defensive rebound112–109
- Q45.0Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 2112–109
- Q45.0Knicks offensive team rebound112–109
- Q45.0Jalen Brunson misses free throw 1 of 2112–109
- Q45.0VJ Edgecombe personal take foul112–109
- Q45.8Knicks defensive team rebound112–109
- Q45.8Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot112–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:34Landry Shamet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 101 – 93 PHI · NY 80% → 91% +11NY 80% → 91%+11 pts
- Q42:13Joel Embiid makes two point shotNY 102 – 99 PHI · PHI 11% → 23% +12PHI 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q41:55OG Anunoby makes tip in dunkNY 104 – 99 PHI · NY 78% → 90% +12NY 78% → 90%+12 pts
- Q41:34VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)NY 104 – 102 PHI · PHI 7% → 28% +21PHI 7% → 28%+21 pts
- Q41:12OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 107 – 102 PHI · NY 75% → 95% +20NY 75% → 95%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -115 / PHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1
- NY 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NY: Elo 45.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.5 – 113.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +57 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 116.815th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 115.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +1.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 111.510th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.618th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 30 |
| 26th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 30 |
| 12th of 301538 | Elo rating | 147120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–24 | 26–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–20 | 15–10 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 24–21 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 11–5 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.
- Jan 3PHI 130 @ NY 119Picked NY 61%Miss
- Dec 19PHI 116 @ NY 107Picked NY 68%Miss
- Apr 1PHI 91 @ NY 105Picked NY 86%Hit
- Feb 26PHI 105 @ NY 110Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 15NY 125 @ PHI 119Picked NY 65%Hit
- Nov 12NY 111 @ PHI 99Picked NY 59%Hit
- May 2NY 118 @ PHI 115PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Apr 30PHI 112 @ NY 106PlayoffsPicked NY 59%Miss