Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Max ChristiePoints26
- Ryan NembhardAssists5
- Moussa CisseRebounds9
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints22
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–97
- Q423.8Tyler Kolek makes 7-foot two point shot114–97
- Q431.0Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Kelly assists)114–95
- Q447.4Mohamed Diawara makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Pacome Dadiet assists)111–95
- Q41:12Moussa Cisse makes free throw 2 of 2111–93
- Q41:12Mavericks offensive team rebound110–93
- Q41:12Moussa Cisse misses free throw 1 of 2110–93
- Q41:12Mohamed Diawara personal foul110–93
- Q41:19Moussa Cisse defensive rebound110–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:04Klay Thompson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)DAL 27 – 12 NY · DAL 46% → 53% +7DAL 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q210:34Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)DAL 35 – 27 NY · NY 53% → 60% +7NY 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q210:22Cooper Flagg makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 38 – 27 NY · DAL 40% → 47% +7DAL 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q28:43Klay Thompson makes 25-foot running jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 43 – 31 NY · DAL 44% → 51% +8DAL 44% → 51%+8 pts
- Q26:28Karl-Anthony Towns makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)DAL 51 – 34 NY · NY 27% → 34% +7NY 27% → 34%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -12.5
- ML DAL +410 / NY -550
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- NY: Elo 74.7%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -432
- DAL +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 109.5 – 122.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | −13 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +188 Elo | NY 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 80.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 80.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.2 | Points scored | 118.57th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 114.912th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.9 | Margin | +3.78th of 30 |
| 27th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 118.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 114.318th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 100.423rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–14 | Road vs home | 16–54th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 148823rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301443 | Elo rating | 154611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–24 | 20–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–24 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.