Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points12
- Egor DeminAssists3
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds6
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints20
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- Josh HartRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game66–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter66–120
- Q48.5Danny Wolf makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)66–120
- Q420.1Danny Wolf defensive rebound63–120
- Q424.5Tyler Kolek misses 7-foot pullup jump shot63–120
- Q445.3Terance Mann makes layup (Jalen Wilson assists)63–120
- Q457.9Nets Full timeout61–120
- Q41:09Mohamed Diawara makes tip shot61–120
- Q41:09Mohamed Diawara offensive rebound61–118
- Q41:09Mohamed Diawara misses tip shot61–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:24Egor Demin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)BKN 3 – 2 NY · BKN 15% → 19% +4BKN 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q110:33Mikal Bridges makes 5-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)BKN 3 – 4 NY · NY 81% → 84% +3NY 81% → 84%+3 pts
- Q110:22Egor Demin makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 6 – 4 NY · BKN 16% → 21% +4BKN 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q18:17Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 6 – 12 NY · NY 86% → 89% +3NY 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q13:18Jalen Brunson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)BKN 17 – 27 NY · NY 90% → 92% +3NY 90% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -12.5
- ML BKN +455 / NY -625
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6
- NY 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- NY: Elo 71.8%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -478
- BKN +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 103.5 – 116.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −14 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +162 Elo | NY 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 80.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 114.811th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.4 | Margin | +3.28th of 30 |
| 26th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 114.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 100.422nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 16–66th of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 148923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301362 | Elo rating | 152112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 20–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 18–20 |
| Underdog | 18–21 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–10 NY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.