Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints34
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints49
- Brandon WilliamsAssists6
- Caleb MartinRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–121
- Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound123–121
- Q40.0Cooper Flagg misses 20-foot pullup jump shot123–121
- Q44.1Mavericks Full timeout123–121
- Q44.1Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2123–121
- Q44.1Moussa Diabate enters the game for LaMelo Ball122–121
- Q44.1Daniel Gafford enters the game for Caleb Martin122–121
- Q44.1Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2122–121
- Q44.1Cooper Flagg shooting foul121–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:07LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 116 – 113 DAL · CHA 52% → 78% +27CHA 52% → 78%+27 pts
- Q41:01Max Christie makes 24-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)CHA 118 – 118 DAL · DAL 13% → 49% +35DAL 13% → 49%+35 pts
- Q438.5Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 121 – 118 DAL · CHA 51% → 92% +41CHA 51% → 92%+41 pts
- Q433.5Cooper Flagg makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 121 – 121 DAL · DAL 7% → 49% +42DAL 7% → 49%+42 pts
- Q44.1Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2CHA 122 – 121 DAL · CHA 50% → 92% +41CHA 50% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -3.5
- ML CHA -155 / DAL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -4
- CHA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- CHA: Elo 64.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHA -140
- DAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 114.5 – 111.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DAL and CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +51 | −30 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +106 Elo | CHA 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 62.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 116.621st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −2.523rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 108.927th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.4 | Pace | 103.63rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 14–1319th of 30 |
| 26th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149023rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301524 | Elo rating | 146420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–20 | 21–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 19–29 | 20–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.