Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints38
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists10
- Al HorfordRebounds8
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints30
- Naji MarshallAssists9
- Dwight PowellRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–123
- Q44.6Mavericks defensive team rebound115–123
- Q46.0Brandin Podziemski misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot115–123
- Q49.2Naji Marshall back court turnover115–123
- Q430.7Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)115–123
- Q435.9Naji Marshall lost ball turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)112–123
- Q457.3Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2112–123
- Q457.3Buddy Hield enters the game for Al Horford111–123
- Q457.3Quinten Post enters the game for Stephen Curry111–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:42Stephen Curry makes 33-foot three pointerGS 80 – 82 DAL · GS 42% → 53% +11GS 42% → 53%+11 pts
- Q48:26Max Christie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)GS 96 – 96 DAL · DAL 28% → 42% +14DAL 28% → 42%+14 pts
- Q47:50Ryan Nembhard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 96 – 99 DAL · DAL 42% → 58% +15DAL 42% → 58%+15 pts
- Q47:20Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)GS 98 – 102 DAL · DAL 48% → 63% +16DAL 48% → 63%+16 pts
- Q47:09Stephen Curry makes 29-foot three pointerGS 101 – 102 DAL · GS 36% → 52% +16GS 36% → 52%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML GS -250 / DAL +205
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- GS: Elo 57.1%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- GS -218
- DAL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 120.5 – 114.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | −44 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +50 Elo | GS 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 114.224th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 116.620th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.9 | Margin | −2.423rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 109.127th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 111.49th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–13 | Road vs home | 13–1119th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301565 | Elo rating | 146920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–23 | 20–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–18 | 19–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–5 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Dec 25DAL 116 @ GS 126Picked GS 73%Hit
- Feb 23DAL 102 @ GS 126Picked GS 76%Hit
- Feb 12GS 107 @ DAL 111Picked GS 73%Miss
- Dec 15DAL 143 @ GS 133Picked GS 50%Miss
- Nov 12DAL 117 @ GS 120Picked GS 55%Hit
- Apr 5GS 106 @ DAL 108Picked GS 56%Miss
- Apr 2DAL 100 @ GS 104Picked DAL 53%Miss
- Mar 13GS 99 @ DAL 109Picked DAL 62%Hit