Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Mavericks- Max ChristiePoints24
- Cooper FlaggAssists6
- Naji MarshallRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–110
- Q410.4Naji Marshall makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)116–110
- Q420.9Naji Marshall defensive rebound116–108
- Q423.7Luka Doncic misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot116–108
- Q441.8Naji Marshall offensive foul turnover116–108
- Q441.8Naji Marshall offensive charge116–108
- Q450.5Luka Doncic makes 3-foot two point shot116–108
- Q41:04Jake LaRavia defensive rebound114–108
- Q41:07Naji Marshall misses free throw 2 of 2114–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:16Jake LaRavia makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)LAL 97 – 102 DAL · LAL 9% → 21% +12LAL 9% → 21%+12 pts
- Q43:17Luka Doncic makes driving layupLAL 101 – 104 DAL · LAL 18% → 30% +12LAL 18% → 30%+12 pts
- Q42:45Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 104 – 106 DAL · LAL 15% → 36% +20LAL 15% → 36%+20 pts
- Q42:15Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 108 – 106 DAL · LAL 43% → 71% +28LAL 43% → 71%+28 pts
- Q41:40Marcus Smart makes tip shotLAL 110 – 107 DAL · LAL 63% → 81% +18LAL 63% → 81%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML LAL -175 / DAL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 49.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -156
- DAL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 119.0 – 114.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −21 | LAL: Usual rotation · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +6 Elo | DAL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 114.423rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 116.619th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −2.223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 109.227th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 111.37th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.3 | Pace | 103.66th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 14–1118th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148922nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Elo rating | 148018th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–20 | 21–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–10 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–18 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–3 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.