Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints24
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–112
- Q410.3James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2104–112
- Q410.3James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2104–111
- Q410.3Luka Doncic personal take foul104–110
- Q420.3John Collins defensive rebound104–110
- Q423.6Luka Doncic misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot104–110
- Q431.0Nicolas Batum bad pass
turnover (Jarred Vanderbilt steals)104–110
- Q433.6Nicolas Batum enters the game for Ivica Zubac104–110
- Q433.6Clippers Full timeout104–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:56Luka Doncic makes 27-foot fade away jump shotLAL 91 – 93 LAC · LAL 21% → 36% +15LAL 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q45:34James Harden makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAL 91 – 96 LAC · LAC 64% → 79% +15LAC 64% → 79%+15 pts
- Q41:55Jarred Vanderbilt makes 5-foot dunk (LeBron James assists)LAL 99 – 103 LAC · LAL 6% → 14% +9LAL 6% → 14%+9 pts
- Q41:28LeBron James makes driving layup (Marcus Smart assists)LAL 101 – 105 LAC · LAL 3% → 11% +8LAL 3% → 11%+8 pts
- Q41:16Ivica Zubac makes 1-foot reverse dunk (Kris Dunn assists)LAL 102 – 107 LAC · LAC 84% → 95% +11LAC 84% → 95%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAL +120 / LAC -142
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2.5
- LAC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 59.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -129
- LAL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.0 – 113.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +4 | LAL: Usual rotation · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +66 Elo | LAC 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 112.325th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 113.89th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.419th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 114.012th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.4 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 11–918th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15106th of 30 |
| 13th of 301519 | Elo rating | 154311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–19 | 20–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–10 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–17 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 7–3 LAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Dec 20LAL 88 @ LAC 103Picked LAL 54%Miss
- Nov 25LAC 118 @ LAL 135Picked LAL 70%Hit
- Mar 2LAC 102 @ LAL 108Picked LAC 54%Miss
- Feb 28LAC 102 @ LAL 106Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Feb 4LAL 122 @ LAC 97Picked LAC 75%Miss
- Jan 19LAL 102 @ LAC 116Picked LAC 62%Hit
- Feb 28LAL 116 @ LAC 112Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Jan 23LAL 116 @ LAC 127Picked LAC 74%Hit