LA Clippers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints24
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints27
- Tre JonesAssists10
- Jalen SmithRebounds9
Last plays
- Q414.4Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2107–129
- Q414.4Lachlan Olbrich personal foul106–129
- Q441.6Dalen Terry defensive rebound106–129
- Q443.5Yanic Konan Niederhauser misses shot106–129
- Q41:17Kobe Brown makes free throw 2 of 2106–129
- Q41:17Jevon Carter foul105–129
- Q41:22Cam Christie defensive rebound105–129
- Q41:24Kevin Huerter misses driving floating jump shot105–129
- Q41:46makes shot105–129
- Q41:49Dalen Terry turnover TyTy Washington Jr.103–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:29Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)LAC 30 – 28 CHI · CHI 43% → 51% +7CHI 43% → 51%+7 pts
- Q210:00Tre Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)LAC 34 – 34 CHI · CHI 48% → 55% +7CHI 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q27:42Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot running jump shot (Coby White assists)LAC 37 – 41 CHI · CHI 58% → 65% +7CHI 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q35:38John Collins makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 74 – 80 CHI · LAC 19% → 27% +8LAC 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q34:38James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 77 – 84 CHI · LAC 16% → 24% +7LAC 16% → 24%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML LAC +120 / CHI -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CHI: Elo 52.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -129
- LAC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.0 – 113.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −47 | +19 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +20 Elo | CHI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 117.410th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 120.326th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −2.823rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 113.115th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 115.925th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 103.92nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–14 | Road vs home | 13–914th of 30 |
| 6th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 147530th of 30 |
| 9th of 301562 | Elo rating | 144025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–22 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.