Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints31
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Naz ReidRebounds8
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints21
- Caleb MartinAssists5
- Dwight PowellRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–105
- Q419.4Naz Reid defensive rebound118–105
- Q422.1Anthony Edwards blocks Jaden Hardy 's 11-foot pullup jump shot118–105
- Q434.1Naz Reid makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Julius Randle assists)118–105
- Q456.8Naz Reid defensive rebound116–105
- Q459.5P.J. Washington misses 24-foot three point jumper116–105
- Q41:07Jaden Hardy defensive rebound116–105
- Q41:09Naz Reid misses 27-foot three point jumper116–105
- Q41:28Anthony Edwards defensive rebound116–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:29Brandon Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)MIN 17 – 18 DAL · DAL 25% → 30% +6DAL 25% → 30%+6 pts
- Q11:57Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Clark assists)MIN 26 – 26 DAL · MIN 65% → 71% +6MIN 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q11:12Mike Conley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joan Beringer assists)MIN 29 – 28 DAL · MIN 67% → 73% +6MIN 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q28:53Jaden Hardy makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles Kelly assists)MIN 37 – 34 DAL · DAL 19% → 24% +5DAL 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q27:59Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)MIN 40 – 34 DAL · MIN 76% → 81% +6MIN 76% → 81%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML MIN -325 / DAL +260
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.1%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -275
- DAL +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 118.5 – 110.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −26 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +101 Elo | MIN 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 114.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 116.520th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −2.323rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 109.126th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.7 | Pace | 103.64th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 14–1219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 148823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301572 | Elo rating | 147220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–27 | 21–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–22 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25 | 20–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–6 DAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.
- Nov 17DAL 96 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 85%Hit
- Jan 22MIN 115 @ DAL 114Picked MIN 59%Hit
- Dec 25MIN 105 @ DAL 99Picked DAL 65%Miss
- Oct 29DAL 120 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 61%Miss
- May 30DAL 124 @ MIN 103PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- May 28MIN 105 @ DAL 100PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss
- May 26MIN 107 @ DAL 116PlayoffsPicked DAL 55%Hit
- May 24DAL 109 @ MIN 108PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss