Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints26
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Moses MoodyRebounds8
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–85
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–85
- Q421.3Quinten Post defensive rebound111–85
- Q422.9Joan Beringer misses free throw 2 of 2111–85
- Q422.9Timberwolves offensive team rebound111–85
- Q422.9Joan Beringer misses free throw 1 of 2111–85
- Q422.9Trayce Jackson-Davis shooting foul111–85
- Q428.8Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 2 of 2111–85
- Q428.8Warriors offensive team rebound110–85
- Q428.8Trayce Jackson-Davis misses free throw 1 of 2110–85
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:45De'Anthony Melton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)GS 45 – 36 MIN · GS 56% → 64% +8GS 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q217.2Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 47 – 46 MIN · MIN 48% → 57% +9MIN 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:54Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)GS 53 – 49 MIN · MIN 38% → 47% +9MIN 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q38:45Moses Moody makes 22-foot running jump shot (Stephen Curry assists)GS 58 – 49 MIN · GS 60% → 69% +9GS 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q34:15Will Richard makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Stephen Curry assists)GS 69 – 57 MIN · GS 73% → 81% +8GS 73% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML GS +164 / MIN -198
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 66.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- GS +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.0 – 121.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | +23 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +118 Elo | MIN 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 120.03rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 115.112th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +4.96th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 116.16th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 111.49th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.8 | Pace | 102.610th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–14 | Road vs home | 15–78th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148822nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301554 | Elo rating | 15855th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–24 | 19–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–18 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–9 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
- Dec 12MIN 127 @ GS 120Picked GS 63%Miss
- May 14GS 110 @ MIN 121PlayoffsPicked MIN 77%Hit
- May 12MIN 117 @ GS 110PlayoffsPicked MIN 64%Hit
- May 10MIN 102 @ GS 97PlayoffsPicked MIN 66%Hit
- May 8GS 93 @ MIN 117PlayoffsPicked MIN 81%Hit
- May 6GS 99 @ MIN 88PlayoffsPicked MIN 68%Miss
- Jan 15GS 116 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 69%Miss
- Dec 21GS 113 @ MIN 103Picked MIN 61%Miss